A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check
By: Robert H. Socolow & Stephen W. Pacala
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- Retreating glaciers, stronger hurricanes, hotter summers, thinner polar bears: the ominous harbingers of global warming are driving companies and governments to work toward an unprecedented change in the historical pattern of fossil-fuel use
- Today the world’s coal, oil and natural gas industries dig up and pump out about seven billion tons of carbon a year, and society burns nearly all of it, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2)
- A simple framework to relate future CO2 emissions to this goal is a contrast of two 50-year futures
- In one future, the emissions rate continues to grow at the pace of the past 30 years for the next 50 years, reaching 14 billion tons of carbon a year in 2056
- In the other future, emissions are frozen at the present value of seven billion tons a year for the next 50 years and then reduced by about half over the following 50 years
- To hold global emissions constant while the world’s economy continues to grow is a daunting task
- Over the past 30 years, as the gross world product of goods and services grew at close to 3 percent a year on average, carbon emissions rose half as fast
- As societies get richer, the services sector education, health, leisure, banking and so on grows in importance relative to energy-intensive activities, such as steel production
- Hundreds of power plants are not needed today because the world has invested in much more efficient refrigerators, air conditioners and motors than were available two decades ago
- The task of holding global emissions constant would be out of reach
- Today’s notoriously inefficient energy system can be replaced if the world gives unprecedented attention to energy efficiency
- Our goal in developing the wedge framework was to be pragmatic and realistic to propose engineering our way out of the problem and not waiting for the cavalry to come over the hill
- But holding CO2 emissions in 2056 to their present rate, with out choking off economic growth, is a desirable outcome within our grasp
- Ending the era of conventional coal-fired power plants is at the very top of the decarbonization agenda
- Coal has become more competitive as a source of power and fuel because of energy security concerns and because of an increase in the cost of oil and gas
- That is a problem because a coal power plant burns twice as much carbon per unit of electricity as a natural gas plant
- Of the 14 billion tons of carbon emissions projected for 2056, perhaps six billion will come from producing power, mostly from coal
- Residential and commercial buildings account for 60 percent of global electricity demand today (70 percent in the U.S.) and will consume most of the new power
- So cutting buildings’ electricity use in half by equipping them with super-efficient lighting and appliances
- To achieve one wedge, utilities need to equip 800 large coal plants to capture and store nearly all the CO2 otherwise emitted
- Renewable power can be produced from sunlight directly, either to energize photovoltaic cells or, using focusing mirrors, to heat a fluid and drive a turbine
- Or the route can be indirect, harnessing hydro power and wind power, both of which rely on sun-driven weather patterns
- Reduced use, improved efficiency and decarbonized energy sources
- People can take fewer unwanted trips (telecommuting instead of vehicle commuting) and pursue the travel they cherish (adventure, family visits) in fuel-efficient vehicles running on low-carbon fuel
- All the farmers in the world should practice no-till agriculture rather than conventional plowing
- Eliminating deforestation
- Curtailing emissions of methane in cattle and irrigated lands
- Lower birth rates
- To be sure, the dramatic changes we anticipate in the fossil-fuel system, including routine use of CO2 capture and storage, will require institutions that reliably communicate a price for present and future carbon emissions
- Critically, a planetary consciousness will have grown
- Humanity will have learned to address its collective destiny and to share the planet
Our world is going into a climate crisis and alarming warnings have been reported. Retreating glaciers, stronger hurricanes, hotter summers, thinner polar bears: the ominous harbingers of global warming are driving companies and governments to work toward an unprecedented change in the historical pattern of fossil-fuel use. Today the world’s coal, oil and natural gas industries dig up and pump out about seven billion tons of carbon a year, and society burns nearly all of it, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2). Actions and cooperative efforts is needed right now. To being with, a simple framework to relate future CO2 emissions to this goal is a contrast of two 50-year futures. In one future, the emissions rate continues to grow at the pace of the past 30 years for the next 50 years, reaching 14 billion tons of carbon a year in 2056 where no changes are made. In the other future, emissions are frozen at the present value of seven billion tons a year for the next 50 years and then reduced by about half over the following 50 years where changes have been made. However, to hold global emissions constant while the world’s economy continues to grow is a daunting task. Today’s notoriously inefficient energy system can be replaced if the world gives unprecedented attention to energy efficiency. The goal in developing the wedge framework was to be pragmatic and realistic to propose engineering our way out of the problem and not waiting for the cavalry to come over the hill. It basically means that we have the tools and methods in our grasp to escape our way out of the problem and not wait for new inventions that would later come into play for this worldwide problem. The most important part of the process is to end the era of conventional coal-fired power plants which is at the very top of the decarbonization agenda. Coal has become more competitive as a source of power and fuel because of energy security concerns and because of an increase in the cost of oil and gas. That is a problem because a coal power plant burns twice as much carbon per unit of electricity as a natural gas plant. Of the 14 billion tons of carbon emissions projected for 2056, perhaps six billion will come from producing power, mostly from coal. Now that is some major number. Another is residential and commercial buildings that account for 60 percent of global electricity demand today (70 percent in the U.S.) and will consume most of the new power. So cutting buildings’ electricity use in half by equipping them with super-efficient lighting and appliances can be helpful. Surprisingly, there are lots and lots of ways to use better energy-efficient alternatives like using direct sunlight, or energizing in photovoltaic cells, focusing mirrors to heat up fluid and run turbines. The main point is to focus in reduced use, improved efficiency and decarbonized energy sources. Examples are taking fewer unwanted trips (telecommuting instead of vehicle commuting) and pursue the travel they cherish (adventure, family visits) in fuel-efficient vehicles running on low-carbon fuel, practicing no-till agriculture instead of conventional plowing, eliminating deforestation, cutting down methane emissions, and low birth rates. To be sure, the dramatic changes we anticipate in the fossil-fuel system will require institutions that reliably communicate a price for present and future carbon emissions. By then, a planetary consciousness will have grown. In conclusion, Humanity will have learned to address its collective destiny and to share the planet.
After watching today's documentary of how our planet is going through drastic changes in so little time and at such devastating rates, it makes so much more sense of how that is related to this article because protecting our planet will be very critical. Earth is warming up and if we do not take collective efforts results can be deadly or even fatal as to how areas can get so hot that our civilization dies from severe rising temperatures. Many glaciers are melting which leads to sea level increase and according to the documentary it said that the entire map of the Earth would have to be redrawn. Its scary. Not only that, storms are getting stronger because of warmer oceans. Overall, I can say one thing and that is where will everything be in 2056 and do we still even exist at that time?Has Earth fallen?This is the kind of connection of the people today need to consider now to save not just our beloved planet but present and future families of the upcoming generations and nature itself. We only have one chance.